Whenever we think of online lotteries that can be played worldwide and offer life-changing prizes, Mega Millions and Powerball come to mind. However, it is reasonable to think if we should focus on either Mega Millions or Powerball. The differences between them are not clear to everyone, especially when it comes to their odds, and that is what this guide will clarify today.
Quick Jump
Mega Millions Vs. Powerball Odds – Comparison Table
From a distance, Powerball and Mega Millions may seem almost identical. They both have five balls plus an additional one drawn every time, and both lotteries start with an immense jackpot prize of $20 million whenever someone wins. Also, the jackpot has already been over $1.5 billion in both games, but that is about it in terms of similarities.
The differences appear not only when we compare the Mega Millions vs. Powerball odds but also in the structure of the games.
Mega Millions is a 5/70 lottery, meaning that you must choose 5 numbers between 1 and 70, with a second drum of 1/25 for the Mega Ball. On the other hand, Powerball is a 5/69 plus 1/26 game. Since there are fewer numbers to be drawn, the Powerball odds are consequently better:
| Mega Millions | Powerball | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match | Prize | Odds | Prize | Odds | Odds Difference | Prize Difference |
| 5 + 1 | Jackpot | 1 in 302,575,350 | Jackpot | 1 in 292,201,338 | 10,374,012 | – |
| 5 | $ 1 Million | 1 in 12,607,306 | $ 1 Million | 1 in 11,688,054 | 919,252 | – |
| 4 + 1 | $10,000 | 1 in 931,001 | $50,000 | 1 in 913,129 | 17,872 | $40,000 |
| 4 | $500 | 1 in 38,792 | $100 | 1 in 36,525 | 2,267 | $400 |
| 3 + 1 | $200 | 1 in 14,547 | $100 | 1 in 14,494 | 402 | $100 |
| 3 | $10 | 1 in 606 | $7 | 1 in 580 | 26 | $3 |
| 2 + 1 | $10 | 1 in 693 | $7 | 1 in 701 | 8 | $3 |
| 1 + 1 | $4 | 1 in 89 | $4 | 1 in 92 | 3 | – |
| 0 + 1 | $2 | 1 in 37 | $4 | 1 in 38 | 1 | $2 |
It is easy to see that the Powerball odds are almost always better, with irrelevant differences in the last prize tiers. On the other hand, it has a much better third-tier prize and smaller secondary prizes overall from that level below. As a result, Powerball shows up as a better appealing lottery if you are not particularly aiming at the $500 and $200 Mega Millions prize tiers.
Is Powerball Easier to Win Than Mega Millions?
The fact that Powerball is easier is irrefutable, regardless of any theory you would choose to take, because of the odds of winning the lottery. As stated in our blog post about how to win the lottery using math, odds determine your chances of winning, which is why anyone could beat the lottery by buying every ticket if that was logistically possible.
The confusion begins when we realize that Powerball has overall odds of 1 in 24.87 against 1 in 24 in Mega Millions. However, that is simply because Mega Millions has better odds in some of the lowest tiers. That affects the overall odds a lot because the small prizes are much more likely to occur.
That only proves that, if you are aiming at the biggest prizes, Powerball is the number one choice. As for the small prizes, the difference is so irrelevant that you could pick both. Then, the obvious choice becomes Powerball.
Megaplier Vs. Power Play
For the same extra cost of $1, players can add the Power Play to a Powerball ticket or a Megaplier to a Mega Millions ticket. Since it multiplies every secondary prize, it makes sense to bring that feature and its respective odds on each game to this debate:
| 2X | 3X | 4X | 5X | 10X | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megaplier Odds | 1 in 3 | 1 in 2.5 | 1 in 5 | 1 in 15 | – |
| Power Play Odds | 1 in 1.79 | 1 in 3.31 | 1 in 14.33 | 1 in 21.5 | 1 in 43 |
Therefore, while the Megaplier has better odds for a 4X and a 5X multiplier, Powerball is the only game with a 10X multiplier, plus better odds for 2X and 3X prizes. If we keep in mind that we need to win a secondary prize in the first place, it still sounds much better to go on with Powerball, and its 10X multiplier with a Power Play.
Mega Millions Vs. Powerball Odds From a Jackpot Perspective
Most of the time, when we are playing a game like Mega Millions or Powerball, we are interested in the life-changing jackpot. After all, smaller prizes can be collected in smaller games – although you will not find a second prize of $1 million that goes up to $10 million with a multiplier.
In terms of the jackpot alone, Mega Millions is around 3.5% harder than Powerball. That does not sound like a lot, but it has 10,300,000 more combinations added to the pool. That is the total possible combinations for many lottery games with prizes between $800,000 and $2 million. It is certainly a lot, but you might be wondering if the prizes make up for it.
Our historical results that you can check on the Mega Millions lottery results and the Powerball lottery results pages show us the following:
Within 10 drawings, Powerball rolled over the addition of $100 million to the jackpot prize, while Mega Millions came out from a jackpot prize and accumulated over $130 million. On the other hand, Powerball has one more weekly drawing and, over the same time span, the increase was very similar – around $100 million.
If we check the lottery records in the United States, we can see that there is a balanced alternation between Powerball and Mega Millions:
| Rank | Prize (in Millions) | Game |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | $1,586.4 | Powerball |
| 2 | $1,537 | Mega Millions |
| 3 | $1,337 | Mega Millions |
| 4 | $1,050 | Mega Millions |
| 5 | $768.4 | Powerball |
| 6 | $758.7 | Powerball |
| 7 | $699.8 | Powerball |
| 8 | $687.8 | Powerball |
| 9 | $656 | Powerball |
| 10 | $648 | Mega Millions |
| 11 | $632.6 | Mega Millions |
Therefore, it is not like one accumulates bigger jackpots more often. As time passes by, Powerball is as likely to have prizes above $1 billion as Mega Millions is, as it has always been.
The conclusion is that Powerball is the easiest and best option for the jackpot.
Mega Millions Vs. Powerball – Which One Should You Play?
If our analysis would really be a must-follow conclusion, people would just stop playing Mega Millions and opt for Powerball instead. The truth is that your numbers, either generated by quick picks or lottery software, might end up being drawn in a Mega Millions drawing instead. Can you imagine discovering that you could have been a millionaire but lost the opportunity because you only considered mathematical conclusions and not randomness?
Yes, you may buy Powerball tickets thinking of the best odds, but why not buy Mega Millions tickets as well if both can change your life? Depending on the lottery site you have chosen, there might be good bundles, or syndicate plays for Mega Millions that would make it more interesting even with the higher odds.
Therefore, we conclude that Powerball has the best odds but that not going for Mega Millions as well might prove a mistake. From that lesson, you can make whichever decision you feel matches your playing profile. At least now you have the data to support your choice.
